i-DTC Indicators Show Recovery in Payment to Creditors in 3Q & 4Q 2020

i-DTC Indicators Show Recovery in Payment to Creditors in 3Q & 4Q 2020

Experian Information Services Malaysia released its latest ‘Industry Debts Turned Cash’ Indicators on payment trends in 2019 and 2020.

 

KUALA LUMPUR, 14 January 2021 - The Trade Bureau platform of Experian Information Services (Malaysia) today announced the 2019 and 2020 Industry Debts Turned Cash (i-DTC) which measured payment data between 1Q 2019 to 4Q 2020.

 

i-DTC measures the average number of days companies take to pay their creditors after the invoice date. It is based on more than 500,000 payment records on business corporations and SMEs across a spectrum of industries facilitating a clearer picture of how fast companies are paying their creditors. In this study, the seven selected industries of construction, hospitality and food/beverage, manufacturing, retail, services, transportation and storage, and wholesale were examined.

 

While businesses continue to be impacted by the effects of COVID-19, the payment trend in 2020 has shown signs of recovery from the worst of the COVID-19 effects.

 

Figure 1: Overall Monthly i-DTC (April 2020 – December 2020)

 

Overall, the average i-DTC for the seven industries increased by 10 days from 78 days in April 2020 to a high of 88 days in June 2020.

 

This is likely due to companies attempting to preserve cash as a result of the unprecedented decline in business activity during the period of the Movement Control Order (MCO). Operational constraints, in particular, among Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) who were not equipped or ready with a Work From Home structure to facilitate ‘business as usual’, would also have added to payment delays.

 

Malaysia entered a recovery MCO phase starting 10 June 2020. Following the high of 88 days in June 2020, the payment trend eased to 74 days in November 2020, which is comparable to the pre COVID-19 period. Month-on-month, the improvement is one day, reflecting a relative stability in payment trends.

 

The latest December 2020 data shows a slight uptick of 2 days to 76 days overall, as Malaysia announced an extension of its recovery MCO to end March 2021. Industries on the whole, are still able to maintain its payment for now due largely to ongoing government measures. However, the increase of 2 days in December 2020 may be indicative of a start of a reversion to cash preservation strategies by businesses as some Malaysia localities impose stricter movement controls. 

 

According to Dawn Lai, Chief Executive Officer of Experian Information Services (Malaysia), “There is a noticeable recovery tracked in 3Q and 4Q of 2020 in the wider Malaysian economy. This positive trend is likely attributed to the fact that most of the Malaysian economy re-opened post the MCO and with business activity resuming to some normalcy since June 2020. This, coupled with the government’s ongoing implementation of the Prihatin and Penjana economic stimulus packages, have contributed to enhanced business activity which has helped boost market confidence.

 

Figure 2: Monthly i-DTC by 7 industries (April 2020 – December 2020)

 

“Comparing data from July till December 2020, based on a month-on-month comparison, Lai noted that all seven industries saw an improvement in i-DTC days with three industries registering the largest improvements - hospitality and food/beverage industry (18 days), retail (16 days) and construction industry (15 days).”

 

According to Lai, the hospitality and food/beverage industries built on the recent signs of improvement in September and October 2020 through the Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) phase which spurred more business activity. Many construction projects also resumed operations in that period.

 

Since then, the increase in COVID-19 cases have resulted in an expanded Conditional MCO (CMCO) across many parts of Malaysia. While the government signalled that it expects the CMCO to affect 4Q20 GDP growth with consumer demand being impacted mainly in the retail, food and beverage, hospitality as well as the transportation sector, it is very encouraging to note that positive payment trends continued into 4Q. This is also despite the automatic moratorium having ceased in September.

 

This outcome can be attributed to the initiatives by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and the financial industry to implement measures to address the COVID-19 impact and support economic recovery. However, with most states in Malaysia being back into CMCO, it could have an impact on the payment trends of businesses.

 

The latest December 2020 data shows that across most industries, payment trends have seen an increase, with 6 industries seeing an increase on a month-on-month basis with Manufacturing (up 5 days) and Wholesale (up 4 days) seeing the highest increases. This may be due to the CMCO impacting the two sectors, lengthening delivery timelines and experiencing delays in payment.

 

Moving into 2021, downside risks includes the ongoing political uncertainty, the sharper resurgence of COVID-19 cases, vaccine deployment delays, latest announcements on the reinstatement of the MCO and CMCO in the respective states and the national state of emergency declared by the King,  which may continue to impede the business outlook of Malaysian firms in making timely repayments.

 

Figure 3: Overall Quarterly i-DTC (1Q2019 – 1Q2020)

 

Analysing the pre-COVID-19 data, Lai said, “A quarterly review of the average i-DTC 2019 across the same industries indicated a steady average of payment around 73 days in 2Q, 3Q and 4Q and even into 1Q20, a decline from the average of 75 days in 1Q19.  Then, with the impact from the pandemic, payment trends saw an increase in payment periods right till June 2020 and then improved thereafter.

 

“Nonetheless, there remains downside risks in the economy due to COVID-19. Some of the risks include a further resurgence of COVID-19 cases and potential delays in vaccine deployment. Should this materialise, businesses may revert back to a cash preservation strategy to ensure their survival,” she cautioned.

 

In light of unprecedented challenges of today’s economy, Lai advised businesses, especially MSMEs, to remain vigilant on payments to ensure long term sustainability and to adopt available online credit management tools.

 

Experian, the world’s leading global information services company, has a portfolio of products such as the CrediTrack and Trade Bureau services in Malaysia to help organisations protect themselves and their customers from credit risks.

 

To encourage businesses, in particular SMEs, to avail themselves to seamless online credit management tools, Experian continues to offer a one-month free trial of its CrediTrack.  Lai said this initiative is timely in today’s volatile economy as it allows businesses to explore proven solutions to better manage their credit risks, monitor the creditworthiness of their customers and partners and receive daily alerts to enhance their recovery efforts. 

 

 

Penunjuk i-DTC Menampakkan Pembayaran kepada Pemiutang Semakin Pulih pada Suku Ketiga (Q3) & Suku Keempat (Q4) 2020

 

Experian Information Services Malaysia mengeluarkan Penunjuk ‘Hutang Bertukar Tunai Untuk Industri’ edisi terbaharu untuk trend pembayaran pada tahun 2019 dan 2020.

 

Kuala Lumpur, 14 Januari 2021 - Platform Biro Perdagangan (‘Trade Bureau’) Experian Information Services (Malaysia) hari ini mengumumkan Penunjuk ‘Hutang Bertukar Tunai Untuk Industri’ (i-DTC) untuk tahun 2019 dan 2020 yang mengukur data pembayaran antara suku pertama (Q1) 2019 sehingga suku keempat (Q4) 2020.

 

i-DTC RAMCI mengukur purata hari yang diambil syarikat-syarikat untuk membayar para pemiutang mereka selepas tarikh invois dikeluarkan. Ia adalah berdasarkan lebih 500,000 rekod pembayaran oleh perniagaan korporat dalam pelbagai industri bagi memaparkan gambaran lebih jelas akan kepantasan syarikat-syarikat dalam membayar pemiutang mereka. Dalam kajian ini, tujuh industri iaitu pembinaan, perhotelan dan makanan / minuman, pembuatan, peruncitan, perkhidmatan, pengangkutan dan penyimpanan, dan pemborongan telah dikaji.

 

Walaupun rata-rata perniagaan terus terkesan oleh COVID-19, trend bayaran balik pada tahun 2020 telah menunjukkan tanda-tanda pemulihan daripada kesan pandemik ini.

 

Rajah 1: i-DTC Bulanan Keseluruhan (April 2020 - Disember 2020)

 

Secara keseluruhan, purata i-DTC untuk ketujuh-tujuh industri meningkat sebanyak 10 hari dari 78 hari pada bulan April 2020 kepada rekod tinggi 88 hari pada bulan Jun 2020.

 

Ini mungkin disebabkan oleh syarikat yang cuba mengekalkan aliran tunai akibat penurunan mendadak aktiviti perniagaan sewaktu tempoh Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan (PKP), yang belum pernah dialami sebelum ini. Kekangan operasi, khususnya, dari kalangan Perusahaan Mikro, Kecil, dan Sederhana (PMKS) yang belum bersedia atau tiada kemudahan untuk menjalankan Kerja Dari Rumah (Work From Home), juga dapat melewatkan lagi pembayaran.

 

Malaysia memasuki fasa pemulihan PKP bermula 10 Jun 2020. Berikutan kenaikan tempoh sebanyak 88 hari pada bulan Jun 2020, trend bayaran balik berkurang kepada 74 hari pada bulan November 2020, yang setara dengan tempoh sebelum COVID-19. Bulan ke bulan, tempoh berkurang sebanyak satu hari, mencerminkan kestabilan relatif dalam aliran pembayaran.

 

Manakala data Disember 2020 terkini menunjukkan peningkatan tempoh selama 2 hari, mencatatkan 76 hari secara keseluruhan apabila Malaysia mengumumkan pemanjangan tempoh Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Pemulihan (PKPP) sehingga akhir Mac 2021. Semua industri secara amnya, masih dapat mengekalkan kadar bayaran balik terkini terutamanya disebabkan oleh usaha kerajaan. Namun, kenaikan untuk 2 hari pada bulan Disember 2020 mungkin menandakan bahawa syarikat akan kembali mengekalkan aliran wang tunai sebagai strategi perniagaan mereka apabila beberapa kawasan di Malaysia dikenakan kawalan pergerakan yang lebih ketat.

 

Menurut Dawn Lai, Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Experian Information Services (Malaysia), "Kami mengesan kadar pemulihan yang ketara pada suku ketiga (Q3) dan suku keempat (Q4) pada tahun 2020 dalam sektor eknomi Malaysia secara amnya. Besar kemungkinan, trend positif ini disebabkan oleh pembukaan kembali kebanyakan sektor ekonomi Malaysia selepas PKP, ditambah dengan aktiviti perniagaan yang kembali normal sejak Jun 2020. Hal ini, di samping pakej rangsangan ekonomi Prihatin dan Penjana yang sedang dilaksanakan kerajaan, telah menyumbang kepada peningkatan aktiviti perniagaan yang telah membantu menguatkan keyakinan pasaran.

 

Rajah 2: i-DTC bulanan dalam 7 industri (April 2020 – Disember 2020)

 

Bandingan data dari bulan Julai hingga Disember 2020, berdasarkan perbandingan bulan ke bulan, Lai menyatakan bahawa ketujuh-tujuh industri memperlihatkan tempoh i-DTC yang bertambah baik, lebih-lebih lagi dalam tiga industri berikut - industri perhotelan dan makanan / minuman (18 hari , peruncitan (16 hari) dan pembinaan (15 hari).

 

Menurut Lai, industri perhotelan dan makanan / minuman menampakkan tanda pemulihan pada bulan September dan Oktober 2020 sewaktu fasa Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Pemulihan (PKPP) yang mendorong lebih banyak aktiviti perniagaan. Banyak projek pembinaan juga telah kembali beroperasi dalam tempoh tersebut.

 

Tetapi selepas itu, peningkatan kes COVID-19 telah membawa kepada Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Bersyarat (PKPB) yang berkuatkuasa di banyak kawasan seluruh Malaysia. Kerajaan mengisyaratkan bahawa ia menjangkakan PKPB akan membantutkan pertumbuhan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) pada suku keempat (Q4) 2020 akibat permintaan pasaran yang terkesan terutama dalam sektor peruncitan, makanan dan minuman, perhotelan dan juga pengangkutan. Oleh itu, ia sesuatu yang menggalakkan apabila data mencatatkan trend bayaran balik yang bertambah baik meskipun memasuki suku keempat (Q4). Tambahan lagi, moratorium automatik telah tamat pada bulan September.

 

Hal ini dapat dikaitkan dengan inisiatif Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) dan industri kewangan yang melaksanakan langkah-langkah untuk menangani impak COVID-19 dan menyokong pemulihan ekonomi. Namun, dengan berkuatkuasanya semula PKPB ke atas kebanyakan negeri di Malaysia, ini boleh memberi kesan pada aliran bayaran balik perniagaan.

 

Data Disember 2020 yang terkini menunjukkan bahawa dalam kebanyakan industri, trend tempoh bayaran balik telah meningkat. Dari bulan ke bulan, 6 industri mengalami peningkatan tempoh dengan  industri Pembuatan (bertambah 5 hari) dan Pemorongan (bertambah 4 hari) mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi. Ini mungkin disebabkan faktor PKPB yang mempengaruhi kedua-dua sektor ini, lantas memanjangkan jangka masa penghantaran dan melewatkan tempoh bayaran balik.

 

Melangkah ke tahun 2021 pula, terdapat banyak risiko yang mungkin boleh memberi kesan buruk terhadap trend ini. Antaranya adalah ketidakpastian dalam arus politik semasa, kenaikan semula kes COVID-19 yang semakin meningkat, kelewatan pengedaran vaksin, pengumuman terbaharu mengenai pelaksanaan PKP dan PKPB di negeri-negeri yang berkenaan, serta yang terkini, pengisytiharan darurat oleh Yang Di-Pertuan Agong, yang mungkin akan terus mengurangkan kebarangkalian syarikat untuk membuat bayaran balik yang tepat pada masanya.

 

Rajah 3: i-DTC suku tahun keseluruhan (Q12019 – Q12020)

 

Menganalisis data pra-COVID-19, Lai berkata, "Apabila melihat purata data suku tahun i-DTC 2019 tentang industri yang sama, ia menunjukkan purata tempoh bayaran balik yang stabil sekitar 73 hari pada suku kedua, ketiga dan keempat (Q2, Q3 dan Q4) bahkan pada suku pertama 2020 (IQ20), penurunan dari purata 75 hari pada 1Q19. Kemudian, akibat wabak yang melanda, trend pembayaran mencatatkan peningkatan dalam tempoh pembayaran sehingga Jun 2020 dan kemudian bertambah baik selepas itu.

 

"Walaupun begitu, masih wujud risiko yang boleh memberi kesan pada ekonomi akibat COVID-19. Antaranya termasuklah peningkatan semula kes COVID-19 dan pengedaran vaksin yang berkemungkinan lewat. Sekiranya ini terjadi, syarikat-syarikat akan kembali menyimpan aliran wang tunai untuk memastikan perniagaan mereka dapat terus beroperasi,” katanya lagi, memberi peringatan buat semua. 

 

Dalam mengharungi cabaran baharu dalam ekonomi hari ini, Lai menasihatkan syarikat perniagaan terutamanya PMKS untuk peka akan pembayaran mereka di samping menggunakan kemudahan pengurusan kredit online yang sedia ada, supaya perniagaan mereka kekal mapan.

 

Experian, syarikat perkhidmatan maklumat global terkemuka di dunia, mempunyai portfolio produk yang meluas seperti perkhidmatan CrediTrack dan Biro Perdagangan (‘Trade Bureau’) di Malaysia untuk membantu organisasi melindungi diri mereka dan pelanggan mereka daripada risiko kredit.

 

Demi menggalakkan syarikat perniagaan, khususnya PKS untuk menggunakan kemudahan pengurusan kredit online, Experian akan terus menawarkan tempoh percubaan percuma selama satu bulan untuk CrediTrack. Lai menekankan bahawa inisiatif ini tepat pada masanya dalam ekonomi yang tidak menentu pada hari ini. Ini kerana ia membolehkan perniagaan mencari penyelesaian yang terbukti berkesan untuk menguruskan risiko kredit mereka dengan lebih baik, memantau kelayakan kredit pelanggan dan rakan kongsi mereka, serta menerima makluman setiap hari untuk menambah baik usaha pemulihan mereka.

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Experian

By Experian 01/14/2021

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